Predictions? Who’d have ’em after 2016’s wild moves.
Check out the 2016 Financial Market Awards handed out by A Wealth of Common Sense’s Ben Carlson. Among them “Biggest Round Trip: Gold miner stocks.”
Carlson offers up the “amazing” chart below that shows the ride to the top and down again for one triple-leveraged miners ETF JNUG, +11.16% . By the numbers, the fund was up nearly 920% by late August, but has since lost 87% of that. It’s now up over 40% for the year.
That brings us to our call of the day — a prediction about precious metals. It’s from Lamoureux & Co.’s Yves Lamoureux, who thinks he knows how 2017 will roll out for those plays.
“Both gold and silver will go down for the first half then move into a new bull market that will last well into 2020. This is the way the market shakes off the last remaining weak hands, prior to resuming the bull trend,” said Lamoureux in emailed comments.
“Where most turned bullish in 2016, in reaction to higher prices, we did not. Our view was and is that the bounce was an echo bubble of the prior bubble,” he said.
One reason is that he says rising real rates will “kill precious metals.” So for silver SIH7, -0.15% , he says expect lower teens in the first half, while he’s still sticking to a gold GCG7, +0.08% target of $ 850 an ounce, which he’s held since February.
Note, gold could mark the first rise in 8 weekly sessions if the positive momentum we’ve seen thus far has legs. This year, the commodity is on pace to have halted a multiyear decline, in what some say has been a “pivotal year” for precious metals.
Gold has slumped since August, but it still is around 7% higher as the year winds down, while silver SIH7, -0.15% has fared even better with a 14% gain.
Key market gauges
If the Dow DJIA, +0.06% is going to finally hit 20,000 this year, today could be it. That is, judging by the positive start hinted at by Dow ESH7, +0.24% YMH7, +0.20% and S&P 500 ESH7, +0.24% futures. On Tuesday, the Nasdaq Composite’s COMP, +0.45% hit a record, while the S&P 500 SPX, +0.22% and Dow both saw marginal gains.
A commodities-stock rally took hold in Asia, ADOW, +0.34% , boosting Aussie equities XJO, +1.01% . The FTSE 100 UKX, +0.57% , back in action after a generous holiday break, is up nearly 0.4%, led by miners.
From ValueWalk comes a slice of recent UBS research revealing the most-crowded and least-popular U.S. stocks right now. Amazon AMZN, +1.42% and its 14% year-to-date gain is most popular, while on the other side, enthusiasm for Apple AAPL, +0.64% , up 11.4%, is running thin:
UBS calculated that data as of Dec. 23.
U.S. holiday sales may have seen the biggest increase in more than a decade if this research firm’s estimates are right. Customer Growth Partners raised its estimate on those sales to 4.9% over last year to $ 637 billion, which would be the biggest jump since 2005.
Slope of Hope’s Tim Knight tracked down some 2016 forecasts from Doug Kass, who forecast a 20% drop in stocks this year. To be charitable, few were able to nail this year for stocks.
After that dazzling consumer confidence data Tuesday, pending home sales for November are due at 10 a.m. Eastern.
The U.S. Consumer Confidence Index for December surged nearly four points to 113.7, THE HIGHEST LEVEL IN MORE THAN 15 YEARS! Thanks Donald!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 28, 2016
Ho ho ho
$ 237 billion — That’s how much richer the world’s wealthiest individuals will be by the end of 2016., according to Bloomberg’s Billionaire Index. At the top of that list is Warren Buffett’s, who added $ 11.8 billion this year thanks to post-election gains by Berkshire Hathaway’s BRK.A, -0.28% BRK.B, -0.22% bank and airline holdings.
Carrie Fisher arrives at “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” premiere Dec., 2015.
“Carrie was one-of-a-kind…brilliant, original. Funny and emotionally fearless. She lived her life, bravely.” — Harrison Ford’s tribute to late co-star Carrie Fisher.
200 people showed up to a Philadelphia mall in a disturbance planned via Snapchat.
GoFundMe launched to keep Betty White safe for the rest of 2016.
Amazon asked to turn over Echo data to help solve murder case.
Turning Hermès scraps into whimsical holiday ornaments. Adorable.
Death Star creator dishes on Redditt AMA.
Some Rockettes say they’d quit over Trump inauguration row
“I am not a piece of meat.” Ariana Grande sticks it to a rude fan:
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